Updated 10 October 2026. Brent crude’s December contract closed the week at $104.72 a barrel on Friday 9 October, up 0.42 percent on the day and about 2.4 percent above the previous Friday’s $102.25 settle (Investing.com historical data). Markets are shut for the weekend and Brent reopens on Sunday evening. Verdict: the week ahead is a range trade with a political floor. President Trump has ruled out new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms while keeping the naval blockade in place, and prediction markets believe him for now. That caps the upside unless a tanker incident changes the picture, while the blockade and a storm-hit Gulf of Mexico keep a floor under the price. Reference levels for the week are $97 below and $110 above.
Key facts
- Friday close: $104.72 for the December Brent contract, after a session range of $102.33 to $105.09. Thursday’s close was $104.28 (Investing.com historical data).
- The week’s range was $97.06 to $105.92: the low came on Tuesday 6 October, the high on Thursday 8 October, when reports of possible new US strikes on Iran lifted prices more than 4 percent before Trump’s statement pulled them back (Investing.com; Al-Monitor; OilPrice.com).
- Trump’s pledge: on 8 October he said on Truth Social that the US “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections”, that the blockade “will remain in full force and effect”, and that Washington is having productive discussions with Tehran (Axios; Al-Monitor; AP via the Boston Globe).
- Polymarket odds (fetched Saturday morning, 10 October): 95.6 percent that the US-Iran ceasefire holds through 12 October, 91.5 percent through 15 October, 75.5 percent through 31 October, 72.5 percent through the midterms and 39.5 percent through 30 November.
- Storm Isaias shut in about 511,000 barrels a day of offshore crude, roughly a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, according to figures reported on 8 October.
- The EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to about $105 in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, $14 above September’s outlook, and put September’s Brent spot average at $114 (EIA, via Ship & Bunker and Trend).
- Next data point: US September CPI is due on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30am ET (BLS release calendar). August CPI ran at 3.4 percent year on year.
Where Brent finished the week
Brent spent the first half of the week drifting lower. The December contract closed at $100.32 on Monday 5 October, touched $97.06 intraday on Tuesday and closed at $100.20 on Wednesday, according to Investing.com’s historical data. The selling came from the supply side: G7 reserve barrels, Gulf exports running above pre-war levels on several days in late September, and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which its energy minister said had reached 5.8 million barrels a day of operating capacity.
Thursday changed the tone. Brent jumped 4.07 percent to close at $104.28 after media reports that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be used before the midterms. Trump’s Truth Social post later that day ruled such strikes out, and OilPrice.com reported that oil dropped on the statement while still finishing the day higher. Friday was quieter: Brent traded between $102.33 and $105.09 and closed at $104.72.
The result is a week that ended about $2.47 higher than it began, with the market holding most of Thursday’s gain even after the reason for it was withdrawn. That tells you the floor is not only about Iran.
What the Iran pledge does and does not change
Trump’s statement removes the most obvious upside catalyst for the next three weeks: a resumption of US strikes on Iranian territory, which Axios reported would likely target energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear sites if major combat resumed. It does not remove the blockade, which keeps Iran’s own exports off the market, and it does not cover what happens after 3 November.
Polymarket’s ceasefire contracts show that time structure clearly. Traders put the ceasefire holding through 12 October at 95.6 percent and through 31 October at 75.5 percent, but only 39.5 percent through 30 November. The market is pricing the pledge as a deadline, not a peace deal. The contracts resolve on US kinetic action on Iranian soil, so they do not capture attacks on shipping, which have continued: the UKMTO maritime agency reported a tanker off Qatar struck by multiple projectiles this week.
For Brent in the coming week, the practical reading is that a war-driven spike is less likely than it was on Thursday morning, while a shipping-driven one is no less likely than it was before.
The Gulf of Mexico and the inventory picture
Storm Isaias added a domestic supply shock. About 511,000 barrels a day of offshore output, around 25 percent of Gulf of Mexico production, was shut in as operators evacuated platforms, according to figures reported on 8 October and covered in our note on Gulf storm outages and Hormuz tensions. How fast those barrels return depends on whether platforms come through without damage. A quick restart would remove part of the support that held Brent above $104 on Friday.
The EIA’s weekly data showed US crude inventories down 3.2 million barrels, the largest draw in five weeks, while gasoline stocks rose. In its October outlook the agency estimated that global inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels a day in the third quarter and will fall by a further 700,000 barrels a day in the fourth, which is the basis for its roughly $105 fourth-quarter forecast. We covered that revision in EIA’s $105 Q4 Brent forecast.
The 14 October CPI print
September CPI lands on Wednesday 14 October. It matters to Brent in two directions. Energy is a direct input: with Brent spot averaging $114 in September by the EIA’s count, $23 above August, the energy component is likely to be large. A hot headline number would push yields and the dollar up, which tends to weigh on dollar-priced crude. A soft core number would do the opposite and would also ease pressure on the White House over fuel prices before the midterms. August’s CPI rose 3.4 percent year on year and 0.4 percent month on month.
Brent week ahead: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent (December) | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$97 | Gulf of Mexico platforms restart quickly with no damage, Gulf exports stay strong, the ceasefire holds and a hot CPI print lifts the dollar. | $97.06 was the December contract’s intraday low on Tuesday 6 October (Investing.com), before the strike reports. Roughly 7 percent below Friday’s close. |
| Base | $102 – $106 | No US strikes, as pledged; the blockade stays; shipping incidents continue at this week’s pace; storm output returns gradually. | Friday’s session range was $102.33 to $105.09 and Thursday’s high was $105.92 (Investing.com). The EIA’s fourth-quarter average forecast of about $105 sits inside it. |
| Bull | ~$110 | A serious tanker attack or a disruption at Hormuz or the East-West pipeline, or storm damage that keeps Gulf of Mexico barrels offline for weeks. | About 5 percent above Friday’s close and still below September’s $114 spot average (EIA). The bull case needs supply news, not Washington. |
These are near-term reference levels built from prices traded in the past week and the EIA’s published averages, not forecasts. Brent can move several dollars in a session on a single shipping headline, as Thursday showed.
What to watch this week
- Sunday evening’s open. Any weekend shipping incident in the Gulf or the Red Sea will show up in the first trades.
- Gulf of Mexico restart reports. Daily shut-in figures will show how much of the 511,000 barrels a day is back.
- Wednesday 14 October, 8:30am ET. US September CPI.
- The EIA weekly inventory report, which will be the first to capture the storm shut-ins in full.
- Polymarket’s 15 October and 31 October ceasefire contracts. A drop in either is an early sign that traders are doubting the pledge. Our earlier look at how Polymarket prices the Iran blockade explains how those contracts are built.
- 1 November. The next OPEC+ review of the seven producers’ targets, covered in our OPEC+ November hold analysis.
Quick take: Brent closed the week at $104.72 with Washington’s strike option parked until 3 November and the blockade still in force. That points to a $102-$106 week. The route to $97 is a fast storm recovery plus a strong dollar after CPI; the route to $110 runs through the shipping lanes, not the White House.
FAQ
What was the Brent crude price on Friday?
Brent’s December contract closed at $104.72 a barrel on Friday 9 October 2026, up 0.42 percent on the day, according to Investing.com historical data. Thursday’s close was $104.28.
Is the oil market open on the weekend?
No. ICE Brent futures stop trading on Friday evening and reopen on Sunday evening, so the Friday close is the reference price over the weekend.
What did Trump say about Iran and the midterms?
On 8 October Trump said on Truth Social that the US would not attack Iran at any time before the 3 November midterm elections, that the naval blockade remains in full force, and that talks with Iran are productive.
What are the odds the US-Iran ceasefire holds?
On Saturday 10 October Polymarket priced the ceasefire holding through 12 October at 95.6 percent, through 31 October at 75.5 percent and through 30 November at 39.5 percent. The contracts resolve on US military action on Iranian soil, not on attacks against shipping.
How does CPI affect oil prices?
A higher-than-expected inflation print tends to lift bond yields and the dollar, which weighs on dollar-priced crude. US September CPI is due on 14 October at 8:30am ET.
What is the EIA’s Brent forecast?
The EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook expects Brent to average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, about $96 for the full year and about $84 in 2027.
How much Gulf of Mexico oil did Storm Isaias shut in?
About 511,000 barrels a day, roughly 25 percent of Gulf of Mexico crude output, according to figures reported on 8 October. The impact on prices depends on how quickly platforms restart.
Sources: Investing.com (Brent December futures historical closes and session ranges, 5-9 October 2026); Axios, Al-Monitor, AP via the Boston Globe and OilPrice.com (Trump’s 8 October statement and market reaction); Polymarket (US-Iran ceasefire contracts, prices fetched 10 October 2026); EIA October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook as reported by Ship & Bunker and Trend (fourth-quarter and annual Brent forecasts, inventory estimates, September average); EIA weekly petroleum status report (US crude draw); US Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar (CPI date); UKMTO (tanker incident off Qatar); Bloomberg as cited in FinanceFeeds’ 8 October report (Storm Isaias shut-ins, East-West pipeline capacity).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.
